The hottest petrochemical price will maintain a mo

Petrochemical prices will maintain a moderate upward trend, and the profits of spandex and other products will be under overall pressure

last week, the price of ethylene glycol rose by 5.59%, with a monthly increase of 16.44%, a new high in recent 16 months. The international crude oil price fell to less than $80 last week, but the price of petrochemical products in the upper reaches of the industrial chain remained on the upward trend

insiders pointed out that due to the lag in the transmission of oil prices, the oil prices that have been rising since October last year will maintain a moderate rise in the price of petrochemical products in the near future to meet the bonding requirements of structural members under seismic or despicable conditions, and the price may be stable in February

the decline in oil prices does not change the rise in petrochemicals

the analysis report of Guosen Securities pointed out that driven by the rise in crude oil prices for several consecutive months, the prices of petrochemical basic raw materials and derivatives have generally risen, setting off a new wave of rise from upstream ethylene to downstream derivatives. In addition to the ethylene glycol price hitting a new high in nearly 16 months, natural rubber rose by 5.46%, cis-polybutadiene rubber rose by 7.32%, styrene butadiene rubber rose by 8.62%, yellow phosphorus rose by 3.35%, and light soda ash rose by 7. 5% last week In order to alleviate the unsustainable resources faced by the development of the rubber industry and effectively solve the haze weather, heavy soda ash rose by 3.37%

"the rebound in oil prices since the fourth quarter of last year must be a basic reason." The plastic technology series forum, the coating series technology forum, the personal care products technology seminar, the functional food technology forum and other meetings have been successfully held for several times. Wang Jing, a researcher at Orient Securities, pointed out that since the prices of many petrochemical products oversold in the second and third quarters of last year, the price rebound since the fourth quarter can be seen as a rebound after the oversold on the one hand, and more importantly, it comes from oil, electricity Increase in production costs such as gas

Galaxy Securities predicts that the downstream prices of petrochemical intermediates will differentiate. With the growth of pharmaceutical and textile demand, aromatics fluctuate closely with the international oil price, and the probability of aromatics rising in January is large; Affected by the real estate policy, the price increase of olefins is relatively small and slightly slower; Alcohol prices will fall after rebounding due to overcapacity and sufficient supply; Ketone prices will continue to rebound due to short supply

Guosen Securities pointed out that the difficulties in transportation caused by heavy snow is one of the reasons for the continuous rise in the price of chemical products. The insufficient supply of some products led to the rise in the price of PVC, methanol and other products by calcium carbide method

the transmission of oil prices is sometimes sluggish. Wang Jing predicts that the cost of the petrochemical industry will remain stable by February. After the oil price stabilizes, the rise in the price of petrochemical products will also be more stable

the overall profit of end products is under pressure

winter is the off-season of traditional end consumption. Due to the flat downstream demand, the price fluctuation of products near the end of the petrochemical industry chain is not large. "Therefore, the cost increase is not smooth in the whole price transmission process. The ability of each link to raise prices varies with the cost. In contrast, the profits of downstream industries are more compressed because they are more affected by end consumption." Wu Ying, a researcher at Guodu securities, said

analysts pointed out that since spring is the traditional peak season for fertilizers and pesticides, the prices of such related products in the downstream are more supported. Among agrochemical products, the international price of sulfur, the main raw material, continued to rise and returned to more than $100 for the first time since October 2008, driving the phosphate fertilizer market to continue to rise. Domestic sulfur prices also rose on a large scale and in a wide range, exceeding 1000 yuan/ton, with an increase of 10%

the spandex industry experienced an unusually high boom in January. With the recovery of the economic environment, the procurement volume of conventional mainstream producing areas such as Europe, Southeast Asia and North America has promoted the recovery of domestic spandex exports. Although it has entered the off-season of consumption, the market is expected to have a better recovery of spandex in the later stage under the guidance of a series of economic stimulus policies of governments around the world

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